Last week saw the Democratic National Convention. It was a four-day show of pomp with a formality to nominate Joe Biden as the Presidential Candidate of the Democratic Party. Although it follows a similar pattern every time it is held, this edition was a little different. Not only because it was conducted online and has no physical appearance by the State-wise delegates, but also because some traditional Republicans such as John Kasich, who contested against Trump in 2016 Republican primaries, have attended and openly endorsed Joe Biden against their own party’s candidate. Considering that Kasich is a former Governor of the swing State of Ohio, Biden may have a good shot at winning this State like Obama did both times.
This brings us to the most important question – what are the chances of Joe Biden & Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump & Mike Pence? Very good, if you ask me. And here’s how.
We can start with a safe assumption that Biden will win all States that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Hillary was in the race with a lot of baggage such as her ‘establishment’ image, gender, Russian intervention, eight years of Obama causing Democratic anti-incumbency, and the ridiculously crass Donald Trump. This was a low-point for the Democrats against Trump, with any other scenario depicting only an improvement.
With this assumption, we then place the following States in their safe zones:
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | ||
| State | Electoral Votes | State | Electoral Votes |
| California | 55 | Texas | 38 |
| New York | 29 | Indiana | 11 |
| Illinois | 20 | Tennessee | 11 |
| New Jersey | 14 | Missouri | 10 |
| Virginia | 13 | Alabama | 9 |
| Washington | 12 | South Carolina | 9 |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Kentucky | 8 |
| Maryland | 10 | Louisiana | 8 |
| Minnesota | 10 | Oklahoma | 7 |
| Colorado | 9 | Arkansas | 6 |
| Connecticut | 7 | Kansas | 6 |
| Oregon | 7 | Mississippi | 6 |
| Nevada | 6 | Utah | 6 |
| New Mexico | 5 | Nebraska | 4 |
| Hawaii | 4 | West Virginia | 5 |
| Maine | 4 | Idaho | 4 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Alaska | 3 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Montana | 3 |
| D.C. | 3 | North Dakota | 3 |
| Delaware | 3 | South Dakota | 3 |
| Vermont | 3 | Wyoming | 3 |
| Nebraska District – 2 | 1 | ||
| Total: | 234 | Total: | 163 |
We are now left with the following ‘Battleground / Swing States’ which can go either side:
- Florida (29)
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Ohio (18)
- Georgia (16)
- Michigan (16)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arizona (11)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Iowa (6)
Some of these have some notorious history. For example, Florida was instrumental in electing Bush as President in 2000 against Gore. The election was so close that a re-count of votes was ordered. For a while, it seemed like the re-count may give Gore the majority, but the partisan intervention by the Supreme Court halted this re-count and gave it to Bush.
I’ll now look at these nine States to see which side they may swing this election.
- Florida
With plenty of immigration, this State has seen a good surge of Latino and Asian population, which, ideally would vote blue. This, however, wasn’t the case in 2016. It has often been said that Hillary lost in this State mainly due to her image dirtied by the James Comey’s email scandal. Many also must have considered Trump a drastic break from the past or an anti-establishment candidate. Despite all this, Hillary needed about 57K votes to have come to her instead of Trump (out of the total of 4.6M that Trump got).
Considering the margin of 2016, the support to Biden amongst the white working class and traditional voters, the disdain for Trump from the Latino and Asian voters and the high number of Covid cases, I am calling this State for Biden. If the same turnout as 2016 is seen, we need a mere 57K voters who chose Trump in 2016 to choose Biden now. This seems entirely possible.
Tally after Florida: Biden – 263 | Trump – 163
- Pennsylvania
The margin between Trump and Hillary in 2016 was a mere 44K votes. In percentage terms, Trump got 0.72 % more votes than Hillary, the narrowest margin this State has ever seen in almost two centuries. Obama had won this in 2012 with over 300K votes, due to which the State was always considered a solid ground for Hillary in 2016.
It is highly probable that this State has developed strong anti-incumbency against Trump. Not only has Covid affected this State’s vibes, Pennsylvania also became a very strong ground for protests after George Flyod’s killing. The mid-term elections in 2018 have drastically changed the composition of its Representatives to the House from 12-6 in favour of Republicans to a 9-9 tie, showing that the Democrats have snatched away 3 seats from Republicans. This is often a good indicator of what the voters in the State think. In fact, it is one of thirteen ‘keys to the White House’ as mentioned in a book by Allan Lichtman who predicted Trump’s win in 2016.
Due to these considerations, I place Pennsylvania in the Biden column.
Tally after Pennsylvania: Biden – 283 | Trump – 163
Note: Biden has crossed the 270 mark already, hence getting elected as the President. Nonetheless, we’ll look at the remaining seven swing States as well.
- Ohio
Ohio is also the most perfect bellwether State. Whichever candidate has carried Ohio has also carried the entire election since Johnson in 1964. Even before that, it has only been wrong twice. A State in the Rust Belt with a huge share of blue collar voters, it resonated with the Trump’s call of ‘draining the swamp’ more than any other swing State. This gave Trump an unbelievable 8.13 % margin, enough to make this State a red one.
However, I believe that the target voters of both Trump and Biden overlap quite massively in this State. The same blue collar white voters who voted for Trump may now vote for Biden. In fact, for traditional Democrats and Republicans both, Biden may please more than Trump. My friend, Karthik, rightly says that Ohio is no longer a strong ground for industries, has a well-liked Republican Governor who was relatively better in controlling Covid, and has a good chunk of rural voters who may favour Trump regardless of his performance. I agree with him on all these counts.
Although my heart and intuition continue to say that Ohio might go to Biden this time, I cannot overlook what Karthik has said. I call this State for Trump.
Tally after Ohio: Biden – 283 | Trump – 181
- Georgia
With over a 5% margin, this State was hardly a contest in 2016. Trump carried the State both in the pre-election polls as well as the actual elections. Georgia happens to be one of the most conservative, and frankly, racist States of the US. It is where the pro-confederacy vibes have re-lapsed quite strongly.
Obama failed to win this State both times. Although Karthik says that this State may flip to blue this time due to the death of John Lewis, a good black vote consolidation, loosening of conservatism in the suburbs around Atlanta, I am unsure of these reasons being sufficient to actually give it to Biden. It is possible that the aftermath of George Flyod’s killing may have further hardened the believes of conservatives. Plus, the campaigning in Georgia invokes fear and hatred towards the ‘mob’, a phrase often used recently for the Black Lives Matter and Antifa protesters.
Hence, I call this State for Trump.
Tally after Georgia: Biden – 283 | Trump – 197
- Michigan
This State breaks my heart. A strong State in the ‘blue wall’ (States which have voted Blue), it is known for its Automobile manufacturing. The working class was hit by the 2008 recession and was rescued by Obama when he bailed-out the industry. Plenty of jobs lost were restored and the economy became only stronger after that. Further, both politically and socially, it is one of the calm Democratic States.
But this wasn’t true in the 2016 elections. Hillary lost. And with a miniscule margin of 0.23% of votes. That’s less than 9K votes! This means that had Hillary gotten about 4.5K of Trump votes, she’d have won the State. It was in her hands and she lost it by not paying enough attention to it, even while Trump toured it a gazillion times.
With a margin that small in the 2016 elections, it is a no-brainer to call this State for Biden.
Tally after Michigan: Biden – 299 | Trump – 197
- North Carolina
This State is a big toss-up. And I am unsure where to place it. On the one hand, Obama managed to win this State both times. And the working class may vote Biden. But, on the other hand, Hillary lost with a margin of almost 4%. All polling data on RealClearPolitics show this to be a toss-up and any inclination is within the margin of error.
It is a gamble. Although all the reasons of candidates being key to attracting the undecided voters apply, I am taking the gamble and calling this for Biden. Nonetheless, if I am wrong about any of my predictions, this will be the first State where I go wrong.
Tally after North Carolina: Biden – 314 | Trump – 197
- Arizona
Trump won Arizona by a 3.5 % margin. However, I believe that this is one of the States that may shift from Red to Blue. It could be the reverse of Arkansas which went from Bill Clinton to Bush in 2000 and has only solidified its redness over the two decades.
The 2018 Senate contest in Arizona was exciting. Kyrsten Sinema snatched the seat away from the Republicans. This, despite being an openly bisexual person, depicting the liberal wave brushing the State. Further, the death of John McCain may also play some role. McCain, before his death, called up Obama and Biden to attend his funeral, but did not want the sitting President Trump there. Trump has openly insulted McCain for being captured to become prisoner of war in Vietnam, while he himself forged a bone spur to avoid being drafted for this war. All this may play a lot in the minds of pro-McCain traditional Republicans.
While this may be another gamble I take, I feel good to call Arizona for Biden.
Tally after Arizona: Biden – 325 | Trump – 197
- Wisconsin
Another blue wall State which has narrowly escaped Hillary in 2016. The margin for Trump was barely 0.77%, which in the number of votes, is less than 22K votes. This means that if about 11K voters had chosen Hillary instead of Trump, she would have carried this State.
For all the reasons I mentioned for Michigan, I call this State for Biden. It is also a no-brainer with all the polls on RealClearPolitics painting this State blue.
Tally after Wisconsin: Biden – 335 | Trump – 197
- Iowa
What a State. But, more importantly, why is this even important. In the larger scheme of things, Iowa is insignificant. But, the only reason it is rated higher than its worth is because it happens to be the first State to conduct its primaries. Whoever wins this State is said to have the tempo to win subsequent primaries and caucuses. The media coverage is also enormous due to this.
However, when it comes to the Presidential Elections, the candidates may not visit Iowa as much as the other swing States. This is simply because of its low number of Electoral votes – 6 in total. Despite being a Swing state, I do not feel that this State may be any important in the 2020 elections. It is for this reason that I am heeding to the polls and call it for Trump.
Tally after Iowa: Biden – 335 | Trump – 203
Electoral College Map of My Predictions
For now, it’s Advantage Biden. Now, we wait and see how it goes!